Climate: 5% chance of limiting global warming to 2°C

Climate: 5% chance of limiting global warming to 2°C

Climate: 5% chance of limiting global warming to 2°C

They saw that the planet has a mere 5 percent chance of warming by 2 degrees or less in the next 80 years, and that the chance of turning the 1.5-degree increase established by the 2016 Paris climate accord into a reality is at only 1 percent.

A separate study in the same journal found that even if all fossil fuel emissions were halted this year, global temperatures were very likely to be 1.3C higher than pre-industrial levels by the end of the century.

The research conducted by Pincus and atmospheric scientist Thorsten Mauritsen of Germany's Max Planck Institute for Meteorology did not rely on computer model simulations, the basis of earlier climate change research.

A new study has revealed a 90 percent likelihood that global temperatures will rise anywhere from 2 degrees to 4.9 degrees Celsius by 2100, negating most optimism around climate change targets set by the world's nations.

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"... The goal of 2 degrees is very much a best-case scenario", said Raftery in a statement.

"The IPCC was clear that these scenarios were not forecasts", Adrian Raftery, a professor of statistics and sociology at the University of Washington, said in a news release.

The first study used data from 152 countries, including population, carbon emissions, and gross domestic data over the past 50 years. There's a 90 percent chance temperatures will climb by at least 2 degrees Celsius by the end of the century - and they could get nearly 5 degrees higher. But since most of this growth is expected to come from Africa, where fossil fuel consumption is low, the researchers found this factor to be only a minor one in their projections.

"Our study already assumes that the trends in carbon intensity will continue to improve", said Startz. But the study found "a wide range of possible values of carbon intensity over future decades, depending on technological progress and countries' commitments to implementing changes".

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Mauritsen, author of the second study, noted that even though Carbon dioxide has a long lifetime in the atmosphere, the ocean's absorption capacity could reduce estimates of global warming by 0.2 degrees C. Mauritsen and his co-author, Robert Pincus, arrived at an estimated warming of 1.3 degrees by 2100, along with the estimated ocean factor of 1.1 degrees C.

There is a 90 per cent chance that the world's temperature will rise 2C, to 4.9C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century, despite measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

It also concluded that if emissions continue for 15 more years, which is more likely than a sudden stop, Earth's global temperature could rise as much as 3 degrees, CNN reported. To really hammer that home, imagine you'd been given a 5% chance of survival.

This "committed warming" analysis increasingly is critical because it tells policymakers around the world how long people have, given current rates of pollution, before temperatures reach various thresholds.

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Climate modeling and observational data suggest the world is already on track to reach unsafe levels of warming by the end of the century, according to the two papers. To make matters worse, the study has speculated a peak in death toll with a projected 60,000 globally in 2030 and 260,000 by 2100.

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