India takes centre stage in energy economy, to drive demand growth: IEA

India takes centre stage in energy economy, to drive demand growth: IEA

India takes centre stage in energy economy, to drive demand growth: IEA

"Next year's demand growth will struggle to match this", the IEA said.

The report includes several caveats: While the US will become a major exporter of light crude and refined products, it will remain a major importer of heavier crude oil that is used in many of its refineries.

The forecasts are also underpinned by some major assumptions: The report assumes that governments stick to promises they've made on energy, including pledges by India and China to move away from fossil fuels.

In its monthly oil market report, the Paris-based IEA cut its oil demand forecast by 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) for this year and next, to an estimated 1.5 million bpd in 2017 and 1.3 million bpd in 2018. If the standards stay at today's levels, the USA would remain a net oil importer in 2040.

Some analysts even predict that with oil demand declining as EVs set to replace conventional fuel vehicles, oil price could plunge to as low as $10 a barrel over the next six to eight years.

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Elsewhere, Canadian shale gas development will be a casualty of rapidly rising USA production - not only delaying plans for offshore exports but even curtailing supply to its traditional market south of the border.

While the US exported 100 billion cubic metres of Canadian gas in 2005, that figure fell by over a fifth in 2016.

With the USA eating into Canada's prospective market share, the IEA believes Canada's liquefied natural gas export will likely not come to fruition until the 2030s - a decade longer than expected - even as LNG will usher in a "new global gas order".

Myllyvirta said worldwide targets to curb global warming and reduce deaths from air pollution nevertheless require a greater commitment to renewable energy sources.

Overall global energy needs are seen rising more slowly than in the past, but are still projected to expand by 30 per cent between today and 2040.

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Unless OPEC agrees to cut more production, output from non-member states will leave the market in surplus and limit the rally in oil prices, the IEA said.

Crude has climbed lately to a two-year high around $57 USA a barrel in trading in NY, although it is not seen making much larger gains due to rising U.S. output.

The IEA echoed that view, saying it expects the see a resurgence in its oil and gas industries and become the world's biggest net exporter by the end of the 2020s.

The U.S. shale surge could also mean an era of lower-for-longer oil prices.

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