US Oil Output Will Hit 11 MMBOPD in 2019

US Oil Output Will Hit 11 MMBOPD in 2019

US Oil Output Will Hit 11 MMBOPD in 2019

The EIA said United States crude oil production averaged an estimated 9.3 million barrels a day in 2017 and is estimated to have averaged 9.9 million b/d in December.

-While anti-government protests in Iran and the possibility of USA imposing sanctions again on the country has helped the ongoing crude rally to three-year highs, analysts are cautious as further moves are likely to depend on whether US shale production picks up because of the higher prices.

Brent crude futures settled at US$69.20 a barrel, up 38 cents.

USA crude oil production is being forecast to average 10.3 million b/d in 2018, marking the highest annual average production in US history.

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“EIA forecasts USA crude oil production to grow by 980,000 barrels per day in 2018, and we expect most of that growth to come from tight rock formations in Texas and North Dakota, ” he said.

The EIA revised its production growth forecast for 2018 sharply higher to 970,000 bpd from 780,000 bpd in its previous outlook. China's crude imports in December fell 9 percent month-on-month to 33.7 million tonnes, or 7.97 million bpd, customs data showed.

Brent also marked a December-2014 high the previous day, at $70.05 a barrel.

This has contributed to a fall in Singapore refinery profit margins DUB-SIN-REF to below $6 per barrel this month, their lowest seasonal level in five years, leading some refiners to scale down crude runs.

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With global oil prices solid at the moment and expected to rise, the 11 million barrels a day forecast is ominous for the buoyant oil market and OPEC in particular which may be forced to extend is production cap past the end of 2018 and well into 2019.

USA demand growth of 150,000 bpd was estimated for 2017, slightly lower than previous expectations.

Some 800,000 bpd of the projected 1.2 million US increase from December 2017 to December 2019 is expected to come from tight rock formations in the Permian region in Texas and New Mexico, the agency said.

EIA expects OPEC crude oil output will rise by an additional 0.3 MMBPD in 2019 as crude oil production slowly returns to pre-agreement levels. "We believe the rally is likely to continue till March for certain until the winter demand subsides and clarity is reached on the production plans in the US", Icra said in a note.

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EIA said growth in crude oil production, especially in the Permian, is expected to result in increased associated natural gas production and processing. Although more crude oil export infrastructure has been recently built, USA exporters must still use smaller, less-economic vessels or more complex shipping arrangements, which often add to costs. This is the first STEO to forecast through 2019 and it contains updates for 2018 forecasts.

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