IMD predicts normal monsoon rainfall in 2018

IMD predicts normal monsoon rainfall in 2018

IMD predicts normal monsoon rainfall in 2018

Meanwhile, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a thunderstorm warning for Monday.

"Very less probability" of deficient monsoon, IMD director DG K G Ramesh was quoted as saying by PTI.

Releasing its first forecast for 2018, the Met department said that rains would be 97 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a model error of plus or minus 5 per cent. Probability of normal to excess rains is 56% and that of below normal and deficit rain is 44%. The forecast is for the period of June to September. A normal monsoon is in the range of 96-104 percent of the LPA. Last year, rainfall was close to normal at 95% of the LPA, while in 2016 rains were recorded at 97% of LPA.

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A year ago also, there was a normal monsoon forecast by the IMD. The dynamic model has forecast a rainfall of 99 per cent plus or minus a model error of five per cent, while the statistical model forecast is 97 per cent plus or minus model error of five per cent.

On April 4, private weather forecast agency Skymet Weather had released similar forecast that the four-month long Southwest Monsoon which gives about 70 percent of India's annual rainfall, would be normal. The latest forecasts from the MMCFS and global models indicate weak negative IOD conditions may develop during the middle of the monsoon season. He expressed hope that the Monsoon will be constant and not sporadic.

Monsoon is considered as "normal" if the average rainfall is between 96-104 per cent of the LPA.

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This is the third uninterrupted year when the IMD forecasted the normal monsoon rains in the nation.

Skymet also mentioned in its report that above normal rains will benefit the farmers who are expecting good showers in the sowing month of June.

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