BP says Iran oil bans to trigger extreme price volatility

BP says Iran oil bans to trigger extreme price volatility

BP says Iran oil bans to trigger extreme price volatility

In the previous round of sanctions from 2012 to 2015, India continued to buy Iranian crude although it had to cut purchases significantly to protect its wider exposure to the USA financial system.

"Iran has been off-and-on taking rupee payments for oil it sells".

According to an executive order (EO 13846) issued by President Donald Trump, all American and non-American entities were given a six-month "wind-down" period from May 2018, in which to "zero out" all transactions with designated Iranian oil companies and port operators.

"Refiners have placed November nominations to lift 1.25 million tonnes (about 9 million barrels) of oil from Iran", one of the sources said.

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After going ahead with the S-400 missile deal with Russian Federation despite the United States threat of sanctions, reports now suggest that India may continue buying oil from Iran even after the sectoral sanction imposed by the U.S. begin on November 4.

Some analysts predict as much as 1.5 million barrels per day could be removed from the market, an event that could cause prices to rise further.

With the European Union considering the creation of a "special objective vehicle" before November to facilitate trade with Iran, India hopes to find a way to settle payments to Tehran. "We do not know if we will get a waiver (from USA sanctions) or not". Since the start of September, prices had spiked by over 10 per cent reaching a four-year high despite the fact that at the Algiers meeting last month OPEC had declared that the market was comfortably supplied.

Both Iran and Russian Federation have condemned the Trump administration for withdrawing from the deal, a move that will reimpose US sanctions suspended under the accord to choke off the Iranian economy. This likely means we won't see any serious buying this week unless the price is right.

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With Iran sanctions still on the table, potential spare capacity constraints and also a slowdown in USA drilling, US bank J.P.Morgan said in its latest cross-asset outlook for clients that it recommended to "stay long Jan '19 WTI on supply risks to crude".

The softer stance on Iran plus news that Saudi Arabia and Russian Federation could ramp up oil production to compensate for the sanctions has lowered oil prices slightly.

India, Iran's top client after China, has close diplomatic ties with Iran, where it is building a strategic port called Chabahar that is expected to be operational by 2019.

Meanwhile, the oil imports have pushed the value of rupee downwards.

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The best value zone for the November WTI crude oil market is $72.35 to $71.27.

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